| The discussion on the strategic
                orientation for Latin America that has been taking place in the
                ranks of the international Trotskyist movement since before the
                last world congress and that is still continuing fits into the
                framework of a broad debate of like character developing
                throughout the entire anti-imperialist vanguard of the
                continent. This is an essential preliminary point to be borne in
                mind that immediately clarifies one vital fact. This debate is
                not the result of any revolutionary group accommodating to
                “pressure” from some “mystical” sect that lacks
                political experience on behalf of some “surefire solution.”
                It is rather an outgrowth of the practical, living experience of
                all revolutionists and all mass struggles over the past ten to
                twelve years on this continent. This experience can be summed
                up in a few words. Whatever the different starting points of the
                mass movements in the various countries of Latin America,
                everywhere they have come to the same conclusion – that is, all
                forms of struggle that revolutionists have attempted, in close
                liaison with the masses or in isolation from them, have
                culminated in armed confrontations with local or international
                reaction, or both at once, from the moment they began to show
                the slightest serious progress. Whether it was militant peasant
                unionism (Hugo Blanco); militant working-class unionism (Córdoba,
                Rosario); whether it was mass urban uprisings (Santo Domingo) or
                mass rural uprisings (recently in Ecuador); whether it was urban
                guerrilla warfare (Uruguay, Brazil) or rural guerrilla warfare
                (Peru, Colombia); the armed confrontation with the state,
                imperialism or a direct representative of imperialism (like the
                counterinsurgency groups or Rangers), did not occur at the
                conclusion of a long period of building up forces by a gradual
                advance of mass mobilizations. In every case, this confrontation
                came in the initial stage of the ripening of each potentially
                revolutionary form of struggle. The reasons for this state of
                things does not lie either in the relative weakness of the mass
                movement, as some claim; or in the “premature” adoption of
                violent forms of action by this movement, as others claim. It
                lies in a complex: combination of several factors: 
                  The hyperacute and explosive
                    nature of the social contradictions, which make it
                    impossible to channel the militant thrusts of the masses
                    into reformist paths.
                  The assimilation by the
                    masses of the principal lessons of the Cuban Revolution,
                    notably a loss of confidence in the traditional bourgeois
                    and petty-bourgeois formations and an accentuated hostility
                    toward imperialism.
                  The assimilation by
                    imperialism and by the Latin-American bourgeoisie of the
                    principal lesson of the Cuban Revolution, that is, the
                    tendency of any vast mass movement to exceed the limits of
                    its initial objectives and enter into a process of permanent
                    revolution.
                  The capacity of the masses
                    for rapid recovery, even after grave defeats, precisely
                    because of the inability of the ruling classes to achieve
                    real solutions, even temporarily, for the ills the people
                    suffer. (Two striking examples of this are the revival of
                    the Brazilian movement in 1968 in vast mass demonstrations
                    and strike mobilizations, despite the crushing defeat
                    suffered in 1964; and the recovery of the Bolivian mass
                    movement in 1969, despite the no less crushing defeat it
                    suffered in 1964, which was, proportionately speaking,
                    bloodier and more grave than the Brazilian one.)
                  The considerable strength
                    retained by the bourgeois repressive apparatus (constantly
                    fueled, financed, and reinforced by imperialism itself). The
                    strength of this apparatus stands in clear contradiction to
                    the weakness and decay of the traditional bourgeois and
                    petty-bourgeois political apparatuses (Peronism, Vargasism,
                    Goulart populism, the AD in Venezuela, and APRA in Peru).
                    The result of this is that the bourgeois army is becoming
                    the bourgeoisie’s principal political force in all the
                    Latin-American countries. We by no means draw the
                conclusion from this that imperialism and the bourgeoisie can no
                longer govern except under the hideous mask of “gorillas.”
                To the contrary, we have explicitly warned the comrades against
                such a simplistic view of things at the Ninth World Congress. [1]
                But we do draw the conclusion that whatever the vicissitudes or
                maneuvers of the bourgeois, one variant seems extremely
                improbable, if not excluded; that is the one of a rather
                protracted period of ‘bourgeois democracy’ on the European
                or American model (with all the limitations of such democracy,
                it goes without saying) that would permit the increasing growth
                of the mass movement thereby permitting revolutionists to
                achieve a progressive buildup of strength through slow and
                patient work in the unions or other mass organizations, thus
                making it possible to postpone a major armed confrontation until
                the revolutionary organization and mass movement have achieved
                sufficient experience and maturity to undertake this struggle in
                the “best possible conditions. The possibility of such a
                development seems excluded, in our opinion, because the
                bourgeoisie wants to prevent it at all cost and because it
                still has enough power to prevent it. Let us take the exceptional and
                only case in Latin America over the last decade where
                the workers movement has been able to develop and grow in
                conditions of more or less classical “bourgeois democracy”
                – Chile. What do we see the moment Allende has won his
                celebrated electoral victory? The entire vanguard is talking
                about the possibility of an armed confrontation with the
                bourgeoisie. No one seriously believes that it would be possible
                to “purge” or dismantle the bourgeois military apparatus, to
                say nothing of overthrowing capitalism in Chile, without the
                army acting. The eventuality of going
                through an “Allende era” without an armed confrontation
                would be the worst of possibilities, it would mean a terrible
                defeat for the workers movement; that is, with Allende limiting
                himself to a “classical” popular-front policy, not modifying
                the capitalist structures of the economy and the state in any
                way, with the masses accepting this deception and betrayal
                without a violent reaction, and with the right returning
                triumphantly to power on the basis of a general decline in
                combativity, on the basis of a great demoralization. If we rule out this highly
                pessimistic hypothesis, armed confrontation is on the order of
                the day in the relatively near future even in Chile. And, we
                repeat, everyone is talking about it. Because under this
                variant, the masses, more and more outraged and exasperated by
                the hesitations, cowardice, and inevitable capitulations of the
                popular front to the class enemy will themselves move into
                extra-parliamentary action over Allende’s head. And in that
                case, a violent reaction by the possessing classes and their
                army is not only possible but probable. (The only countries
                where such a confrontation is not on the order of the day
                obviously are those where the mass movement has been
                disorganized and on a very low level for long years, as in
                Mexico; that is, in those countries where there are no reasons
                to impel the bourgeois into such a conflict. But even in Mexico,
                all that was needed was the first timid efforts of an explosive
                student movement to influence sectors of the working class and
                poor peasantry and the government proceeded to stage the
                massacre of Tlatelolco.) As long as the five factors
                mentioned above remain valid (and in this specific combination,
                they are valid for the moment only in Latin America and a few
                countries of Southeast Asia), the important and intensely
                fought major armed confrontations will occur from the beginning
                and not in the culminating phase of every major resurgence of
                mass struggles. This is the lesson of experienced It is by
                no means contradicted by the establishment of
                “military-reformist” regimes in a certain number of
                Latin-American countries. To the contrary, the installation of
                such regimes completely confirms this lesson, which we are
                considering precisely in isolation from the specific
                form of the bourgeois governments in Latin America {with the
                sole partial exception of Chile, where the formal structure of
                bourgeois democracy has thus far been maintained). The regime of
                General Velasco has not had to suppress broad mass movements,
                not because he has tolerated them, or been forced to tolerate
                them by “mass pressure,” but because none have yet
                developed. The limited movements that have occurred, notably a
                few spontaneous land occupations and hard-fought strikes have
                all encountered fierce repression which has claimed many lives.
                As for Bolivia, the first sign of a new rise in mass struggles
                provoked a coup d’état followed by a bloody armed
                confrontation. Those who think that because he came to power
                “with the support of the left” General Tórres will prove
                more “tolerant” have a few disagreeable surprises in store
                for them, as soon as he has restored the unity of the army,
                which is his primary aim. We can regret that these things
                are so. We can say that this is not the best variant for the
                Latin-American revolution. But, nonetheless, it is the only
                realistic one. It will occur in any case, whether the
                revolutionists are prepared for it or not. Since the Cuban
                Revolution the Latin-American revolutionists have increasingly
                preferred to prepare for the armed confrontation instead of
                having to face it unprepared. We frankly believe that they are
                right. To state this, explain it, and draw the general
                conclusions from it was the fundamental function of the document
                presented by the majority of the United Secretariat to the Ninth
                World Congress and which was adopted by this congress. The
                Influence of the Cuban Revolution on the Strategic Orientation
                of the Latin-American Revolutionists When Comrade Joe Hansen
                referred in his last discussion document to the preponderant
                influence exercised by the Cuban Revolution for ten years on the
                thought and action of the Latin-American revolutionists, he got
                entangled in a strange and significant contradiction. On the one
                hand, he proclaims as an absolute dogma that guerrilla warfare
                is not a strategy but a tactic. On the other hand, he states
                that the principal lesson the young revolutionary vanguard in
                Latin America drew from the Cuban experience was to engage in
                guerrilla warfare in its most primitive form – “foquismo”
                – and that the majority of the Fourth International is now
                succumbing to the same sin, at the very moment when the Cuban
                comrades themselves are in the process of correcting their
                errors. “These revolutionary-minded youth” (in Latin
                America), he writes, “did not understand the basic political
                reasons for the Cuban success; they sought for the explanation
                on the side of skillful technique in the use of arms.” If the Cuban experience
                essentially meant “foquismo,” if guerrilla warfare
                is a tactical question, how did it happen that for ten years the
                entire revolutionary vanguard in Latin America crystallized
                around debates and passionate struggles centering on the Cuban
                experience? A few tendencies can always get disoriented. Still
                very small, the Fourth International could succumb to “the
                influence of ultra-leftism.” But for the entire
                revolutionary movement in Latin America (we repeat, the entire
                movement with only a few thoroughly minor and insignificant
                exceptions) to let its mind be clouded for more than ten
                years by a purely tactical problem – that would really be
                an inexplicable mystery. And Comrade Hansen does not resolve it
                with a few passing references to “inexperienced youth.” The mystery is very easily
                solved, because it exists only in the rather unreal construction
                of our friend Joe Hansen. The reality is much more complex. The
                revolutionists who let themselves be hypnotized by the question
                of “foquismo” and the purely tactical aspect of
                guerrilla warfare did not constitute all the revolutionary
                movement in Latin America but only a small minority. Of course
                among this minority were some of the most courageous elements
                that the Latin-American revolution has yet produced; The losses
                they suffered because of their tactical errors were heavy and
                painful. But the principal debate, the one which caught
                up almost all the revolutionary movement in Latin America, was
                not over a tactical question but over a strategic one. The
                essential contribution of the Cuban revolution to crystallizing
                and reinforcing the revolutionary current in Latin America was
                not involved with “foquismo” (which only Regis
                Debray really systematized) but with the question of which
                orientation to follow – one toward taking power through
                armed struggle; or a reformist one toward collaborating with the
                “national” bourgeoisie and its army (or a fraction of
                its army)? The fundamental cleavage the
                Cuban revolution introduced into the anti-imperialist movement
                was the result of this strategic alternative. It was on
                this ground that the Cuban Revolution challenged and combated
                thirty years of Stalinist and neo-Stalinist verbiage about an
                “alliance of progressives,” the “electoral road to
                power,” the “democratic tradition of our army,” and so
                forth. It is because this question is a strategical one and not
                a tactical one that the debate has been so impassioned, the
                cleavage so profound, the crystallization so long drawn out.
                Otherwise, all that has occurred in the Latin-American left
                since 1959 would become incomprehensible indeed. Even the
                October Revolution, whose historic impact is unquestionably
                greater, was not able to provoke cleavages in the workers
                movement for ten years over purely tactical questions (such as
                the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly; the Brest-Litovsk
                peace, etc.). On the other hand, it produced cleavages on
                strategic issues (on the dictatorship of the proletariat, that
                is, soviet democracy or bourgeois parliamentary democracy) which
                still persist, and for good reason! Let it be said, moreover, in
                passing that the nature of this cleavage reflected the nature of
                the Cuban experience itself and that it is a complete distortion
                to say, as Régis Debray and a few others have done, that Fidel
                and Che overthrew the Batista regime starting from some isolated
                “foco.” In reality, the July 26 Movement was an
                organization that developed out of the left wing of a mass
                anti-imperialist movement in both the cities and the countryside,
                that even before the landing of the Granma had a
                political and material infrastructure in the cities much more
                solid than anything possessed today by any revolutionary
                vanguard organization in Latin America, and that in conditions
                of extreme clandestinity, under a ferocious dictatorship, tried
                to establish a close liaison with the mass movement. It should
                be added to this that up until the end of the struggle against
                Batista the July 26 organization had a greater number of people
                fighting and falling victim to repression in the cities than in
                the Sierra Maestra. Moreover, the general strike of January 1,
                1959, played a key role in unleashing the process of permanent
                revolution. These facts do not have a
                purely anecdotal value. They enable us to illustrate another
                contradiction in Comrade Hansen’s document. He puts great
                stress on the heavy losses and disastrous defeats resulting from
                the guerrilla struggle in Latin America over the last ten years.
                What, then, is the mysterious reason why so many revolutionists
                and revolutionary groups in Latin America remain partisans of
                armed struggle, despite these losses? Is this out of a pure
                death wish or blind romanticism? Still, grave losses usually
                force militants to react, even those most set in their ways. Two
                years after the 1933 defeat in Germany neither the
                Communist nor the Socialist party dared repeat the policy that
                led to the disaster. Isn’t ten years time in Latin America
                enough for people to draw the minimum lessons from catastrophic
                errors? Here again the mystery clears
                up as soon as you leave the arbitrary construction erected by
                Comrade Hansen (i.e. “for or against foquismo”) and
                rejoin the real and actual debate of the Latin-American vanguard
                (“for or against the strategy of armed struggle”). As soon
                as you look at the problem in this way, the reason why the
                Latin-American revolutionists persist, and why they are right to
                do so, becomes plain. They have acquired the conviction by
                experience that the losses suffered owing to hesitations or
                refusal to engage on the road of armed struggle have been, are,
                and will be infinitely greater than the losses of the guerrillas,
                given the nature of the political systems that prevail and must
                prevail in Latin America. Compare the losses in
                guerrillas with the number killed in the massacres of unarmed
                worker and peasant populations in countries like Peru, Bolivia,
                and Brazil, and you will understand why these losses do not
                alarm any of the revolutionists. We had the same experience
                during the Nazi occupation. When a certain level of ferocity on
                the part of the enemy is reached, revolutionists (including, if
                possible, broader groups and masses) take up arms as a measure
                of self-defense, even in the physical sense of the term. There
                were more survivors among the Yugoslav, Polish, and Russian
                partisans than among the unarmed sectors of the civil population
                exposed to the Nazi mass arrests (and we are not including the
                Jews exposed to total extermination). Many more of the armed
                partisans in all the countries occupied by the Nazis survived
                than the Communist, Trotskyist, Socialist, and trade-union
                leaders who let themselves be deported to concentration camps.
                Many more of the Vietnamese Communists who have been fighting
                arms in hand for twenty-five years have survived than
                of the Indonesian Communists who refused to engage in such a
                struggle. This is the historic dilemma confronting the
                revolutionists in many Latin-American countries. Once you understand the great
                strategic debate that the Cuban Revolution launched in the
                Latin-American revolutionary movement in such terms, you have
                reason to evince much greater concern than Comrade Hansen does
                over the revision of strategy that is underway on the
                part of the Cuban leaders. If it were all a question of tactics
                it would obviously be an excellent thing to stop disseminating
                hundreds of thousands of copies of the “terrible
                simplifications” of the hapless Regis Debray. But,
                unfortunately for Comrade Hansen, much more is at stake than a
                simple change in tactics. The question is whether under the
                combined effect of the failures of “foquismo,”
                Soviet pressure, and the evolution within their own country, the
                Cuban leaders are not abandoning their strategic orientation
                toward overthrowing the bourgeois state in Latin America, which
                is the orientation of the Second Declaration of Havana,
                of the permanent revolution. The question is whether they are
                abandoning their most important strategic advance to return to a
                neo-reformist and neo-Stalinist variant of revolution by stages
                – first the “anti-imperialist revolution” in which
                socialists are supposed to give more or less critical support to
                a still intact bourgeois state and army (or their “progressive
                wing”); then a properly socialist stage. The great majority of
                Latin-American revolutionists have recognized this danger,
                beginning with Hugo Blanco, who emphasized it in excellent terms
                that we entirely approve of. Once again the fundamental
                explanation is not to be sought in the realm of psychology (a
                previous embellishment of the Cuban line now producing an abrupt
                rebound, and so forth). It lies in the political logic. Any
                refusal to envisage armed confrontations in the near or
                relatively near future in Latin America can mean only one of two
                things – either abandonment of all perspective for
                revolutionary transformation; or a return to the illusion that
                this transformation will be miraculously possible with the aid
                or benevolent neutrality of the bourgeois army (or a part of
                it). There is no need to say that much more than the death of
                Che or this or that guerrilla defeat in this or that country, it
                is the practical experience of the Velasco regime in Peru, the
                Ovando-Tórres regime in Bolivia, and the election of Allende in
                Chile that is encouraging the return to these neo-Stalinist
                conceptions. There is no need to point out, either, that
                Moscow’s international apparatus, which does not lack
                resources, is exerting every means to promote such a regression
                and not without success, unfortunately, in Havana also. Let us
                hope that there at least these successes will be strictly
                ephemeral, and let us work toward this end with all our
                strength. This is an essential contribution we must make to the
                defense of the Cuban Revolution. Comrade Hansen is wrong when he
                suggests that the majority of the Ninth World Congress based its
                orientation on the contingency that the Cubans would continue to
                support guerrilla warfare in Latin America. We do not think that
                the destiny of the Latin-American revolution depends on the
                orientation of the Cuban leadership. We think, to the contrary,
                that the rise and new victories of the Latin-American revolution
                will determine the destiny of Cuba (and subsidiary to this we
                think that they will profoundly influence the orientation of
                Fidel Castro). It is in this sense that our strategy of armed
                struggle in Latin America is an integral part of our defense of
                the Cuban Revolution. The
                Historical Variants of Armed Struggle In order to define more
                precisely the character of the strategic debate now underway in
                Latin America – and on Latin America within our movement –
                let us examine the principal variants of revolutionary struggle
                growing over into armed struggle that we have seen thus far in
                the history of the workers movement. (We are obviously leaving
                the minor variants out of the discussion.) 
                  There is the variant that
                    can be called classical – the mass movement undergoes a
                    rapid expansion (after a long period of building up strength
                    and experience) and goes over into arming the proletariat
                    and confronting the bourgeois army at the moment when the
                    revolutionary crisis reaches its fullest flowering, that is
                    simultaneously with a general mass mobilization and
                    emergence on a wide scale of organs of dual power. This is
                    what happened, grosso modo, in Russia in 1917, in
                    Germany in 1918-19, in Spain in 1936, in Vietnam in 1945-46,
                    to pick the most well-known examples. Such a confrontation
                    can occur at the outset of the revolutionary crisis, which
                    happened in Spain and Vietnam; or only when the
                    revolutionary crisis itself nears its culmination, which was
                    the case in Russia. We will come back to the significance of
                    this subvariant.
                  There is the variant that
                    could be called “ultra-left” – a revolutionary party,
                    already strong but clearly a minority, provokes a premature
                    confrontation between its forces, in isolation, and the
                    enemy army, The struggle invariably ends in defeat, a
                    useless defeat. This is the case of the 1921 “March
                    Action” in Germany by the young German CP; it was the case
                    of the 1927 Canton putsch unleashed by the Chinese CP, and
                    so forth.
                  There is a variant
                    intermediate between the first and second, that is the case
                    of an armed confrontation with the enemy which results from
                    the advance and maturing of the mass struggle itself before
                    the revolutionary party has won sufficient national
                    influence to be able to defeat the bourgeois state. This was
                    the case of the Paris Commune, the December 1905
                    insurrection in Russia, the armed struggles resulting from
                    the general strike against General Kapp’s 1920 putsch in
                    Germany, and the Asturias insurrection in 1934. The outcome
                    of such struggles is uncertain. Although they generally end
                    in a defeat, such defeat is not inevitable. Above all, it is
                    not useless because it enables the masses and the
                    revolutionists to acquire the practical experience
                    indispensable for a victorious insurrection in the future.
                    This, in any case, was Lenin and Trotsky’s opinion on the
                    December 1905 insurrection in Russia. (In the chapter on The
                    Art of Insurrection in Volume II of the History
                    of the Russian Revolution, Trotsky explains that
                    the Red Guard could be formed so easily in Petrograd at the
                    time of the February 1917 revolution because the proletariat
                    of the city had retained the tradition of the armed
                    struggles in 1905.) We, for our part, are convinced that the
                    Spanish workers would never have broken the assault of the
                    fascists in almost all the big cities of the country in July
                    1936 if they had not gone through the experience of the 1934
                    insurrection and several minor armed uprisings between 1931
                    and 1936.
                  There is finally the
                    instance of autonomous armed detachments of the mass
                    movement which launch a struggle for one of the following
                    reasons: to extend the fight being waged by the mass
                    movement, with the aim of forcing the counterrevolutionary
                    army to disperse its forces and relax its pressure on the
                    centers of working-class agitation; to facilitate resumption
                    of the mass struggle after a grave but not definitive
                    defeat. (A subvariant is that of a rise of peasant
                    insurrections coming as a delayed response to a
                    working-class upsurge in the cities, after it has been
                    defeated. This, in general, was the case of the Chinese
                    guerrilla struggle after 1928. The aim of saving the cadres
                    persecuted in the cities can play an important part in
                    rapidly unleashing such a fight.) The guerrilla war in
                    Russia in 1906, in China after 1928, in Yugoslavia under the
                    Nazi occupation, and in Vietnam after the start of the
                    imperialist reconquest all fall under this category. Why this classification?
                Because it enables us to narrow the debate. We will not insult
                Comrade Hansen by claiming that he is opposed to the first
                category of armed struggle. No doubt he will not insult us by
                claiming that, turning our backs on all the experience of the
                international communist movement, we are deliberately seeking to
                provoke putsches. The debate is thus focused on the problems of
                the third and fourth category of armed struggle. Now, we must highlight an
                extremely important distinction between the different cases that
                fall under the first category. Why were the Bolsheviks able to
                avoid (and were a thousand times right to do so) a full and
                deliberate armed confrontation with the bourgeois army at the
                time of the February Revolution? Why could such a confrontation
                not be avoided in Germany or Spain? Was it owing exclusively or
                principally to the presence of the Bolshevik party in Russia and
                its absence in Germany and Spain? Frankly, we do not think so.
                We think so still less because in February and March 1917 the
                Bolshevik party was not the party of Lenin or of Lenin and
                Trotsky but the party of Stalin-Kamenev-Molotov, with a policy
                not fundamentally different from that of the German Independents
                in November-December 1918 to January 1919. The reason for the difference
                between the Russian and German and Spanish cases seems to us to
                be an objective one. In Russia, the army had been
                broken up to such a degree by an external factor prior
                to the revolutionary process – the world war – and was
                moreover so rent by internal social contradictions (between
                landlord officers and land-hungry peasants), that it had
                virtually ceased being an adequate counterrevolutionary
                instrument. In fact, it never became such an
                instrument. After the conquest of power by the Bolsheviks, the
                counterrevolutionary officers had to recreate a new army from
                scratch in order to be able to unleash the civil war. This was,
                moreover, one of the reasons for their final defeat. In Spain, the situation
                presented itself in a totally different way. There had been no
                war with a foreign power. The army was materially intact. It was
                shot through with unquestionable political and social
                contradictions, which a revolutionary party of the stature of
                the Bolshevik party would certainly have exploited, widened, and
                made more explosive by tenacious work among the soldiers; but it
                is extremely improbable that even the best revolutionary policy
                could have kept the reactionary officer corps, gathering around
                it the most politically primitive and backward section of the
                population, from constituting a counter-revolutionary striking
                force that would have acted as soon as the mass movement reached
                a certain level of revolutionary initiative. What is the reason for this
                capacity for action on the part of the bourgeois army in the
                first phase of the revolutionary process? It derives from the uneven
                development of the revolutionary process, from the uneven
                development of consciousness in the various segments of the
                population, from the uneven development of the break up of
                capitalist society and the bourgeois state. It is normal and virtually
                inevitable that the conscious industrial proletariat, the
                vanguard of the agricultural and plantation proletariat, and the
                vanguard of the poor landless peasantry will reach the level of
                revolutionary initiative, going over into revolutionary action
                and constituting Soviets, well before the working population of
                petty-bourgeois origin and the strata of workers still
                influenced by reactionary political formations begin to break
                with bourgeois society. A revolutionary party enjoying great
                political authority can seek, by its action, to reduce
                this uneven development; it cannot eliminate it. If the party
                tries to eliminate this unevenness by deliberately curbing the
                enthusiasm of the most revolutionary strata it risks producing
                the opposite result. Not only because the most advanced strata
                may become demoralized and withdraw from the struggle, but
                because the essential element for convincing or
                neutralizing the hesitant strata may disappear, this element
                being less the propaganda of the party or the Soviets
                than the resolute action of the proletariat. Save in exceptional cases,
                which a revolutionary party cannot count on without risking
                falling victim to disastrous illusions, it is unlikely that a
                revolutionary situation will coincide with a breakup of the
                army. Furthermore, the start of disintegration in the
                armed forces, coinciding with a general mobilization of the
                masses, will certainly provoke a move by the army. The military
                chiefs will feel that if they let the revolutionary process
                proceed a few weeks more, the ground might sink under their
                feet. One of the factors which no doubt precipitated the
                military coup d’état in Brazil in 1964 was precisely the
                “mad sergeants’” mutiny, which indicated that the seed of
                dissolution was beginning to take root in the army. Once we have understood this uneven
                process of the decay of bourgeois society, of which the army
                clearly remains one of the last intact “hard kernels,” once
                we have understood this uneven process of the revolutionary mass
                mobilization which clearly leaves a backward layer of the
                population as a base for the army, even when the majority of the
                proletariat is already engaged on the road of revolutionary
                struggle, then, we understand that there is no Chinese wall
                between armed struggles of category number 1 and categories
                number 3 and number 4. And we also understand that the more the
                industrial and agricultural proletariat is in a minority in the
                nation – that is, the more backward the country – the more
                this relative weakness coincides with an extreme
                explosiveness of the objective situation, with a potentially
                revolutionary lightening mobilization of the masses, then, the
                more virtually inevitable is the intervention of the army in the
                first phases of a broad mobilization, if only for the purposes
                of self-defense and self-preservation of the officer corps. We have taken a long historical
                detour to return to the initial strategic conclusion concerning
                Latin America, let us reinforce this conclusion by two
                clarifications on armed struggle, in the light of the general
                experience of the workers movement. Can the struggle of armed
                detachments autonomous from the mass movement be equated with
                putschism or with terrorism? It would be strange, to say the
                least, if Lenin, who had struggled his entire life against
                putschism and populist terrorism should suddenly become an
                advocate of such methods in 1906 and maintain this position
                until the end of his days. What characterizes putschism is the
                attempt to win power – or sometimes to bring a
                radical reversal in the political situation of a country – by
                means of the violent armed action of a small minority. We reject
                this conception and everything that flows from it, just as Lenin
                and Trotsky always rejected it. For us the conquest of power is
                inconceivable without action by the broad masses – the
                emancipation of the workers will be the deed of the workers
                themselves. But this by no means implies
                that we reject all violent armed action by autonomous
                detachments separate from a broad mass movement in every
                situation and for no matter what immediate tactical objectives.
                The theses The Fourth International and the War, which
                Trotsky drew up in 1934, explicitly anticipated the need for
                such actions in defense of the USSR, in the event of an
                imperialist aggression against the first workers state. The
                experience of the second world war showed that such actions were
                possible and useful and by no means conflicted with the task –
                a more protracted one – of reorganizing and reviving the mass
                movement defeated by fascism. In the struggle against rising
                fascism, exemplary actions by autonomous armed detachments may
                be useful and indispensable to convince the masses that such a
                struggle is possible – before the masses themselves enter into
                it. This was confirmed both by the German experience
                (negatively) and by the Austrian(positively – the Schutzbund
                uprising in Vienna in February 1934 was an insurrection by a
                small minority, but neither Trotsky nor the Trotskyist movement
                would for an instant have considered condemning it as
                “putschist”; it was the right-wing Social Democracy that
                utilized this argument, completely misunderstanding the nature
                of fascism). It was confirmed above all by the Spanish
                experience, where the first initiative in fighting back
                arms in hand against the fascist insurrection did not come from
                the “broad masses” but from small detachments of the
                vanguard of the workers parties and trade-unions, who, by
                their example drew the broad masses into the struggle
                later. While we are resolute opponents
                of any isolated action incomprehensible to the masses; we are by
                no means advocates solely of armed actions organized by the
                masses themselves within the framework of their
                organizations. This variant is not always possible. In this
                respect Lenin employed a formula which summed up perfectly the
                historical experience of his time and the epoch following his
                death. In periods of a partial ebb of the mass movement in the
                wake of a defeated mass uprising, as well as in periods of a
                rising mass movement before the development of a generalized
                insurrection, actions by autonomous armed detachments are useful
                and essential to “disorganize the enemy’s force and pave the
                way for future open and mass armed operations ...” (Lenin, Werke,
                Vol.10, pp.146-147, Dietz-Verlag 1958, the resolution on Fighting
                Guerrilla Operations prepared for the reunification
                congress in March 1906 [Collected Works,
                Vol.10, p.153, Foreign Language Publishers, Moscow 1962.]). This
                is true, however, only if these actions are understood by
                the masses and correspond to their” feelings and concerns. Let us repeat again, to avoid
                any misunderstanding, that these considerations apply only to
                pre-revolutionary conditions and in a precise political context
                (the absence of democratic liberties, the impossibility of a
                gradual ascent in the mass movement, etc.). There is no
                question of mechanically extending tnis reasoning to all
                countries in the world, least of all the United States, Japan,
                Great Britain, Germany, etc. In this regard likewise Lenin said
                all that needed to be said in Guerrilla Warfare: 
                  “Marxism demands an
                  absolutely historical examination of the question of the forms
                  of struggle. To treat this question apart from the concrete
                  historical situation betrays a failure to understand the
                  rudiments of dialectical materialism. At different stages of
                  economic evolution, depending on differences in political,
                  national-cultural, living and other conditions, different
                  forms of struggle come to the fore and become the principal
                  forms of struggle; and in connection with this, the secondary,
                  auxiliary forms of struggle undergo change in their turn. To
                  attempt to answer yes or no to the question whether any
                  particular means of struggle should be used, without making a
                  detailed examination of the concrete situation of the given
                  movement at the given stage of its development, means
                  completely to abandon the Marxist position.” (Oeuvres,
                  Volume 11, Editions Sociales, Paris 1966, p.216 [Collected
                  Works, Foreign Language Publications, Moscow 1962,
                  p.214].) The document adopted by the
                Ninth World Congress did not establish universal rules, either
                for all continents or for all time to come in Latin America. It
                drew a certain number of strategic conclusions from a body of
                “concrete historical circumstances,” for as long as these
                circumstances last. It is on this basis that we must be
                answered, not one of proclaiming abstract principles valid at
                all times and places.  A Polemic
                Leading Nowhere In this respect, we are left
                perplexed by the vigorous polemic against the Ninth World
                Congress document which Comrade Hansen resumes in his A
                Contribution to the Discussion on Revolutionary Strategy in
                Latin America. There are two possible explanations for this
                polemic, based on Comrade Hansen’s document as well as the
                discussion article he wrote before the world congress. 1. Comrade Hansen may consider
                that the majority of the international leadership has abruptly
                gone over to Debrayist, foquista positions. In this case, he is
                engaging in a war to defeat the ultra-left phantom of foquismo. If this is really the case, we
                can set his mind at rest immediately. Both the Reunification
                Congress documents and the Eighth World Congress documents, as
                well as the resolution on Latin America voted by the Ninth World
                Congress clearly and unequivocally opposed foquismo.
                There is really no danger of seeing the Fourth International
                take up the ball dropped by the Fidelista team in advocating “foquismo”
                in Latin America. The leading cadres of our movement have
                conducted a systematic polemic against “foquismo” for long
                years. You need only read Comrade Livio Maitan’s article on Régis
                Debray’s book to realize this. Let us add that an objective
                reading, without preconceptions, of the Ninth Congress document
                makes it possible to conclude that it by no means advocates “a
                strategy of rural guerrilla warfare” (to say nothing of “a
                strategy of the ‘foco guerrillero’”), but the
                strategy of armed struggle, which is an entirely different
                thing. To try to give the opposite impression, Comrade Hansen
                has been forced to single out a single sentence in the
                document adopted by the Ninth World Congress and polemicize
                against it instead of analyzing the document as a whole and
                polemicizing against its general line. The least that can be
                said is that this is not a very fruitful method of argument and
                will not advance the movement. 2. The other possibility is
                that Comrade Hansen considers that by putting “excessive”
                stress on the strategy of armed struggle, the World Congress
                document might “inspire” the sections to launch into
                premature actions. The heavy way he emphasises the “defeat in
                Bolivia” seems to support this hypothesis. Therefore, this
                second one warrants a longer refutation. The adoption of any strategy,
                even with the greatest unanimity and lack of dispute, always
                involves the risk of erroneous tactical applications. No
                guarantee whatever exists against such errors – and their
                appearance cannot in any way be considered an argument against
                the correctness of the strategy. In every period, participating
                in broad mass movements (and a fortiori in temporary
                united fronts with reformist organizations) has led some
                elements to make an opportunistic adaptation to the
                more backward layers of the masses. This is what is called
                “tail-endism.” Revolutionary Marxists combat such
                opportunistic adaptations but they hold no less obstinately to
                the line of participating in mass movements and organizations
                (above all, the unions), which is a correct strategic line. Only
                sectarians on the model of the KAPD [Kommunistische Arbeiter
                Partei Deutschlands – Communist Workers Party of Germany] and
                Gorter have taken the pretext of the danger of opportunist
                adaptation to reject struggling inside mass organizations. The adoption of the strategy of
                armed struggle in Latin America corresponds to an analysis of
                the objective conditions and their general tendencies of
                development, to the concerns and needs of the vanguard. This
                does not imply that it safeguards the revolutionary Marxist
                organizations against tactical errors in applying it. But it
                does imply one thing: as long as the conditions apply which we
                outlined above, conditions which make armed confrontations
                inevitable in an early phase of the advance of the mass
                movement, every revolutionary organization, even relatively
                small ones, that have passed a minimum threshold of
                organizational solidity, are condemned to periodic crises if
                they fail to take a correct position on this question (and
                by correct position we do not mean a purely literary and
                propagandistic position but also a minimum of practical
                application). To explain the successive
                crises of the Argentinian organization simply by
                “Debrayist,” or “foquista” pressure means
                substituting a fundamentally idealist explanation for a
                materialist one. It means failing to understand that the roots
                of these crises lie in the irresistible pressure for armed
                struggle resulting from the objective situation – the
                pressure of the masses as much as the vanguard. It means
                believing that it is “foquista false consciousness”
                that determines being – not being, that is the systematic
                strangling of the liberties of the workers in a climate of
                explosive contradictions, that determines the consciousness of
                the necessity of armed struggle. On this question Comrade Hansen
                would do well to reflect on Lenin’s words devoted to this very
                subject of guerrilla warfare: 
                  “It is not guerrilla
                  actions which disorganise the movement, but the weakness of a
                  party which is incapable of taking such actions under its
                  control. That is why the anathemas which we Russians
                  usually hurl against guerrilla actions go hand in hand with
                  secret, casual, unorganised guerrilla actions which really do
                  disorganise the Party. Being incapable of understanding what
                  historical conditions give rise to this struggle, we are
                  incapable of neutralising its deleterious aspects. Yet the
                  struggle is going on. It is engendered by powerful economic
                  and political causes. It is not in our power to eliminate
                  these causes or to eliminate this struggle. Our complaints
                  against guerrilla warfare are complaints against our Party
                  weakness in the matter of an uprising.” (Lénine, Oeuvres,
                  tome 11, Editions Sociales, Paris 1966, p. 221-2 [V.I. Lenin, Collected
                  Works, Vol.11, Foreign Language Publishers, Moscow
                  1962, p.219]) This quotation admirably
                expresses the problem confronting our movement with regard to
                guerrilla warfare and armed struggle in Latin America. It ought
                to convince Comrade Hansen that he is on the wrong road and is
                leading us to an impasse by his polemic. If Comrade Hansen’s fear were
                limited only to seeing sections of too small a size engage
                prematurely in organizing autonomous armed detachments, we would
                obviously be in complete agreement with him. We are keenly aware
                that a primitive accumulation of forces must precede the
                formation of these detachments. Without this there could not be
                the indispensable coordination between mass work and the work of
                armed detachments, between paving the way for the mass
                insurrection and the preliminary “disorganizing the enemy
                forces.” We are determined opponents of the spontaneist idea
                that “the party is built as the armed struggle extends.” For
                the same reason, we are likewise opponents of the no less
                spontaneist idea that “the methods of armed struggle are
                learned as the mass movement rises to its peak.” We are in
                favor of conscious, that is, planned and far-sighted,
                intervention by the revolutionary leadership at every stage of
                the struggle. And this implies the necessity of preparing for
                armed struggle when you expect it in the next stage. But all these obvious truths
                would not justify Comrade Hansen’s polemical heat, because
                they are already incorporated in the Ninth World Congress.
                What was and still is necessary is to clarify the position of
                the Fourth International toward the great strategic debate on
                the “revolutionary or reformist road” in Latin America. And
                – whether Comrade Hansen likes it or not – this debate is
                very largely (not entirely but in very large part) expressed in
                terms of “for or against the armed struggle in the near or
                relatively near future.” Likewise, in seeking to counterpose
                party building to the strategy of armed struggle, Comrade Hansen
                is leading the discussion into a blind alley. In the same way,
                party building could be counterposed to any strategy, for
                example participating in mass demonstrations. This is the error
                Healy and other sectarians make who have reproached the SWP for
                participating in the antiwar movement, the Black nationalist
                movement, and the women’s liberation movement rather than
                “building the revolutionary party.” The SWP has replied
                correctly to these infantile objections that there is no other
                way to build a revolutionary party – as opposed to a
                sect or religious-type cult – than formulating a correct
                strategy corresponding to the concerns and needs of the masses
                themselves. The fact is that the strategy
                of preparing for armed struggle, in most Latin-American
                countries, corresponds in precisely this way to the needs and
                preoccupations of the masses, to all their fighting experience
                over the last ten years. In these conditions, we will answer
                Comrade Hansen as the SWP answered Healy, that there is no way
                to build revolutionary parties in Latin America without adopting
                a correct position on one of the key strategic questions posed
                by the vanguard and the masses – preparation for the armed
                struggle. Far from being mutually contradictory, party building,
                propaganda and agitation for transitional demands, and public
                defense of the strategy of armed struggle are inseparable and
                complementary in the present conditions in Latin America. The Function
                of the Ninth Congress Document The function of the document
                adopted by the world congress is precisely to clarify this strategic
                question. It does not attempt to determine when and in what
                precise conditions each section must “unleash” armed
                struggle. That is a question that depends on the circumstances
                in the various countries, on the development of the objective
                situation, on the level of consciousness of the masses and the
                mass struggle, on the preparedness and extent of our own forces,
                and other such factors. It is, in other words, a purely tactical
                question and must be left to the judgment of each section (with
                a minimum of coordination among neighboring sections, insofar as
                we take seriously our own postulates about “continent-wide
                revolution,” building a “world party,” opposition to
                “national communism,” etc.). Not for a moment did the world
                congress have the intention of bringing pressure to bear on this
                or that section to make such decisions. Where they have been
                made, they have been made by the section and the section alone.
                (This puts Comrade Hansen, moreover, in the disagreeable
                position of initiating an international polemic against tactical
                decisions reserved to the competence of the national sections.
                You can’t have it both ways, Comrade Hansen!) The world congress document had
                a different objective – a strategic and not a tactical one.
                It’s purpose was to define the position of the Fourth
                International in the great ideological debate that is polarizing
                the revolutionary vanguard in Latin America. In order to
                illustrate the meaning of this intervention and its intimate
                connections with party building and defending transitional
                demands, we would like to give a few examples drawn from the
                still fresh experience of the revolutionary movement in Latin
                America. During the congress of the
                miners union in Bolivia and the congress of the COB [Central
                Obrera Boliviana – Bolivian Workers Federation] which followed
                it, there were many discussions on the demands taken from our
                transitional program – nationalization without indemnity or
                compensation (the question of compensating Gulf Oil is at the
                center of political polarization in Bolivia), reestablishing
                workers control over the mining industry, etc. Does Comrade
                Hansen think that after the experience accumulated by the
                Bolivian miners you can stop at that, and top it off with a
                fancy governmental formula or even a propaganda campaign for a
                “socialist revolution?” Thousands of miners and other
                vanguard Bolivian workers will surely answer: 
                  “Dear comrade, completely
                  agree on workers control, eliminating indemnities to Gulf Oil,
                  and the workers-and-peasants-government formula. We would
                  point out, however, that we already partially achieved workers
                  control fifteen years ago. All well and good. But in fighting
                  for your nice program, which we already adopted almost twenty
                  years ago, we ran up increasingly against the army. First it
                  harassed us; then encircled us; then repressed us; and finally
                  massacred us, our wives, and our children. Today it has
                  ‘generously’ withdrawn fifteen kilometers away from our
                  mining centers, but no further. Are you proposing a mere
                  repetition of what happened in the 1950s? How then can we
                  prevent the massacre of our wives and children? Are you
                  proposing nothing more than building the party? But how can
                  this organization defend itself from intervention by the army,
                  in a year, two years, three years? Isn’t it irresponsible to
                  urge us on the one hand to engage in widening mobilizations
                  and struggles which must inevitably and in very short order
                  provoke a violent clash with the army; and at the same time
                  say nothing and do nothing to prevent this clash from being
                  one between reaction armed to the teeth and the virtually
                  unarmed masses?” Our Bolivian comrades were
                entirely right to raise the question of arming the proletariat
                and preparing for armed struggle at the congress of the COB. It
                will be the historic shame of the Communist party and a
                pseudo-Trotskyist like Lora that they deliberately removed this
                question from the agenda, when all the experience of the
                proletariat and all the logic of the situation in Bolivia put it
                at the center of the strategic thinking of any half-way
                perceptive worker militant. The events that occurred a few weeks
                later have entirely confirmed the urgent immediacy of
                this question. Let us take another example. In
                Argentina, the military dictatorship is compelled by the
                relationship of forces to tolerate a not entirely
                state-controlled trade-union movement. But every time any union
                leaders become too radical, the army intervenes to remove them.
                Like any reformist bureaucracy, the union apparatus in control
                displays an abject servility toward capital and its military
                flunkies. Obviously, the Argentinian revolutionists are striving
                to weaken the grip of this bureaucracy on the working class. To
                this end, with only a few exceptions, they defend the idea of
                extending and generalizing struggles (a few even use and abuse
                the slogan of a general strike). To every appeal by a Trotskyist
                journal for extending and generalizing struggles, the vanguard
                workers would have the right to answer: “Hold on! Hold on! You
                say that partial struggles, purely economic ones, are not
                enough. But as soon as the struggle widens, the army intervenes,
                as in Córdoba and Rosario. Do you want to send us into a
                massacre?” And if Comrade Hansen thinks that it is enough to
                answer them. “Build a revolutionary party before thinking
                about military self defense,” they would be still more
                justified in replying: “But before you have built your party,
                stop calling for a generalized struggle which threatens to end
                in a massacre. At least be consistent with your own logic!”
                ... It is apparent where such logic would lead, in the absence
                of a clearly advertised strategy of preparing for armed struggle
                ... Contrary to the impression
                Comrade Hansen leaves, we did not state in the world congress
                document that preparing for armed struggle was synonymous
                everywhere with making preparations for guerrilla warfare, or
                even rural guerrilla warfare. The situation is very complex in
                this respect. It would have been useless and out of place for a
                world congress to want to establish a single variant for the
                future. We note in passing that even an organization entirely
                committed to rural guerrilla warfare like the Brazilian VPR
                [Vanguarda Popular Revolucionaria – Revolutionary People’s
                Vanguard] has come to the conclusion that urban guerrilla
                warfare is the best means for preparing for rural guerrilla
                warfare because it enables them more effectively to accumulate
                cadres and experience for this objective than isolated
                operations launched from the beginning in the countryside. Armed struggle can develop out
                of self-defense in strikes as well as self-defense in peasant
                land-occupations movements. It can be closely combined with
                continuing the mass movement – which is obviously the most
                favorable case, as Comrade Maitan has already emphasized – as
                well as prolong such a movement after a partial defeat, with the
                objective notably of protecting the cadres or freeing the
                victims of repression. It can take place in the cities, in the
                countryside, or in both environments at the same time in varying
                proportions depending on the specific conditions of the moment
                and the country and the available forces. It must always
                be sought to integrate armed struggle closely with mass work,
                which must be pursued without letup through building the party,
                which remains the No.1 overall task. It would be necessary to
                avoiding stripping the plants and unions of experienced
                activists who have already gained experience in mass work,
                except to save them from repression. It would be profoundly
                irresponsible to want to set any general rules, since for the
                entire continent as well as each country changes in the
                objective conditions may call for changing tactics, as the
                Bolivian section has correctly done. But the essential thing, in
                this regard, is to tell the masses openly that armed
                confrontations are inevitable as soon as the mass movement
                attains any serious breadth at all and that they must
                prepare for this. The essential thing is not to think that
                it is enough to declare this on paper, but also to prepare
                yourself for it as soon as you have assembled a minimum of
                forces. The future of our movement in Latin America, the future
                of every revolutionary organization on that continent depends in
                large part on the frankness and seriousness with which they
                approach this body of questions now and in the future. So that the discussion can make
                real progress and not harden into a dialogue of the deaf, we
                would like to pose four questions to Comrade Hansen. 
                  Does he believe that, as a
                    general rule (with only a few minor exceptions) in the stage
                    immediately ahead of us in Latin America it is improbable if
                    not impossible that we will see a peaceful advance of the
                    mass movement, broadening out in successive waves within an
                    essentially bourgeois-democratic framework?
                  Does he believe that, as a
                    general rule, it is improbable that the breakup of the
                    reactionary bourgeois armies in Latin America will proceed
                    at the same rate as the rise of the mass movement, and that
                    therefore these armies, will lose their capacity for
                    carrying out a bloody repression of the movement?
                  Does he think, on the basis
                    of the two preceding considerations, that it is the duty of
                    the Latin-American revolutionists to carry out a propaganda
                    campaign to prepare the masses, and above all the vanguard,
                    for the military confrontations inevitable in the near and
                    relatively near future in most of the Latin-American
                    countries? Does he think that the revolutionary strategy on
                    whose basis the sections of the Fourth International are
                    built must include a clear, unmistakable answer to this
                    question, which in any case is being discussed by the entire
                    vanguard?
                  Does he think that once our
                    own organizations have accumulated a minimum of forces they
                    must, in their turn, prepare for these confrontations or
                    risk very heavy losses, both in physical terms (inflicted by
                    the class enemy) and political terms (inflicted by the other
                    tendencies in the revolutionary movement)? If Comrade Hansen answers
                “no” to these questions, then the differences separating us
                would clearly be serious and would require a thoroughgoing
                discussion. But in this case, for heaven’s sake, let us
                discuss these differences, and not “foquismo”
                which no one in our ranks is defending, or immediate and
                universal organization of “rural guerrilla warfare,” which
                is a completely twisted interpretation of the document voted on
                by the world congress. If, as we firmly hope and as we
                expect from all his own revolutionary background and the
                revolutionary tradition of his party, Comrade Hansen, in
                general, answers “yes” to these questions (perhaps with a
                few nuances), then there are no differences over strategy, then
                the debate as it has developed thus far has been based on
                misunderstandings and divergent interpretations of texts, Then
                all that remains would be a debate over the tactical question of
                whether one or another section was right or wrong to draw this
                or that tactical conclusion from our common strategy.
                Such a debate would not be without interest. But it would
                support none of the dark apprehensions Comrade Hansen manifests
                about an ultraleft danger threatening us. And such a debate
                would be severely limited in extent, because Comrade Hansen
                would be the first to proclaim that the decision
                in these tactical matters lies within the competence of the
                national sections and not the world movement ... November 1970 
 Footnote 1.
                In a recent polemical document, Comrade Hansen wrote: 
                  “To justify converting
                  rural guerrilla war into a strategy, it was argued [in the
                  majority resolution – E.M. & M.K.] that the
                  Latin-American ruling class, operating hand in glove with US
                  imperialism, left no other alternative open. Against the
                  ferocious violence of the ruling class, nothing could be done
                  except to turn to guerrilla struggle.” (Page 4 of A
                  Contribution to the Discussion on Revolutionary Strategy in
                  Latin America) To prove this peremptory claim,
                Comrade Hansen quotes a passage from the resolution which
                declares that the class enemy will not permit legal organization
                of a mass movement that progressively develops and grows without
                trying to repress it by violence. Then he exclaims triumphantly
                that Bolivia and Peru prove the contrary! Really, Comrade
                Hansen? Where, then is the revolutionary mass movement tolerated
                by General Velasco in Peru? Where then is the revolutionary mass
                movement that the army has not sought to repress by force, far
                from tolerating it, in Bolivia? It is clear that Comrade Hansen
                is confusing the alternative “military dictatorship of the
                gorilla type or military dictatorship of the reformist type,”
                with the alternative “military dictatorship or bourgeois
                democracy.” It is this last alternative the resolution
                excludes, save in exceptional cases; and we will continue to
                exclude it. As for the first alternative, the majority document
                anticipated it in so many words, as is evident from the
                following passage: 
                  “This does not exclude
                  possible oscillations in the most disparate directions,
                  including new ephemeral pseudo-reformist attempts, political
                  gambles, and even variants within the framework of military
                  regimes (groups of officers are continually playing at
                  ‘Nasserism’ in several countries and the immediate import
                  of military coups is not always the same in every given
                  situation). But this will change nothing in the general,
                  deep-seated tendency: in a situation of chronic crisis and
                  pre-revolutionary tensions, the ruling classes will inevitably
                  be impelled to adopt brutal repressive measures and utilize
                  despotic and terrorist political regimes. Since these classes
                  often are not very solid as social forces and cannot
                  realistically contemplate solving their problems with
                  popularly based reactionary regimes on the fascist model,
                  military regimes remain the most likely recourse.” (Intercontinental
                  Press, July 14, 1969, p.718) The least one can say is that
                this analysis has not yet been contradicted by the evolution in
                Latin America except – temporarily – in Chile. 
 Note by ETOL (http://www.marxists.org/history/etol/index.htm) 1*.
                Martine Knoeller was the pseudonym of Gisela Scholtz, Mandel’s
                first wife, who died in 1982.
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